An official import-dependency rate, an ESS exposure indicator, a supplier share and a scenario path can all be correct while reporting very different values. The first step in responsible analysis is identifying the question each measure answers.
1. Official dependency rates
Official dependency rates measure how much an economy relies on net imports relative to a defined energy denominator. They are the correct source when the question asks for the official EU or national dependency percentage.
2. SecurEnergy ESS indicators
ESS1 adds energy-consumption and GDP scaling to oil and gas import inputs. ESS2 describes industrial energy intensity. ESS3 describes domestic-production coverage. These values support trend and relative comparison inside the project framework; they do not replace official dependency percentages.
3. Supplier shares
A supplier share is conditional on the product, measurement unit, reporter scope, trade flow and period. A partner can dominate LNG imports without holding the same share of gaseous gas, oil, total energy imports or final energy use.
4. Scenario paths
Scenario paths begin with empirical baselines and add transparent assumptions. They answer “what changes under this calibrated set of assumptions?” rather than “what will certainly happen?” Uncertainty bands show model and parameter sensitivity, not the full range of geopolitical possibilities.
A five-question checklist
- What is the exact metric and formula?
- Which product, geography, period and unit does it cover?
- Is the value directly observed, transformed or scenario-generated?
- What direction represents stronger security?
- Which limitations would change the interpretation?
Applying this checklist prevents most false comparisons and makes dashboard evidence easier to reproduce.