Policy Scenarios
ESS1-ESS4 forecasts, shocks, sensitivity, decomposition, forecast quality, and energy partners.
Dashboard Suite
The website keeps the formula atlas in one place, then lets each dashboard focus on interpretation, validation, and evidence.
Multi-API ESS
Comext, World Bank, OECD, Wikipedia, and news-feature experiments against exact Eurostat targets.
Industrial Production
ESS1, ESS2, and ESS3 against EU industrial-production and sector paths.
Sold Production
Eurostat PRODCOM sold-production value, index, activity-group shares, and forecasts.
Macro Interaction
GDP, electricity prices, sold production, CPI, and inflation on a shared indexed view.
GDP Trends
One comparison dashboard showing how nominal and real GDP trends diverge.
Method & Formula Atlas
This is the canonical formula section for the website. Dashboard pages refer back here instead of repeating the same formula panels at the beginning of each view.
ESS1 Oil Exposure
ESS1_oil = sum_i(TOI_i * TOC_i * TEC_i) / sum_i(TOC_i * TEC_i * GDP_i)
Leman Erdal; Ali Osman Pektaş; Omer Ozkan; Filiz Özkan; Security of energy supply in Japan: a key strategy and solutions; p.136-137. ESS1 is the energy import-dependency indicator. It represents the accessibility dimension of energy-supply security: a country is more secure when supply can continue and energy can be made ready for use, regardless of whether the source is domestic or foreign. This project applies that logic to the oil-import channel.
ESS1 Gas Exposure
ESS1_gas = sum_i(TGI_i * TGC_i * TEC_i) / sum_i(TGC_i * TEC_i * GDP_i)
Leman Erdal; Ali Osman Pektaş; Omer Ozkan; Filiz Özkan; Security of energy supply in Japan: a key strategy and solutions; p.136-137. ESS1 is an import-dependency ratio. This project applies the same accessibility logic to gas imports. The displayed ESS1 ensemble is the average of the oil and gas channels, used as a project-level fossil-import exposure signal.
ESS2 Industrial Energy Intensity
ESS2 = sum_i(IEC_i) / sum_i(GDP_i)
Leman Erdal; Ali Osman Pektaş; Omer Ozkan; Filiz Özkan; Security of energy supply in Japan: a key strategy and solutions; p.136-137. ESS2 is energy intensity, defined as energy use relative to GDP. It captures both accessibility and affordability because lower energy intensity reduces the energy required by the economy and can lower exposure to imported-energy needs. Lower values are therefore the stronger security direction.
ESS3 Domestic Production Ratio
ESS3 = sum_i(DEP_i) / sum_i(TEC_i)
Leman Erdal; Ali Osman Pektaş; Omer Ozkan; Filiz Özkan; Security of energy supply in Japan: a key strategy and solutions; p.136-137. ESS3 is the domestic production rate of energy. It measures the share of domestic energy production in total energy consumption and belongs to the accessibility dimension. Higher domestic production coverage improves supply security; falling values imply greater fragility if external supply is interrupted.
ESS4 Directional Security Index
Displayed ESS4 is normalized
ESS4_raw_formula = (ESS1_ensemble + ESS2 + ESS3) / 3
ESS4_index = mean(ESS1_ensemble_2015 / ESS1_ensemble * 100, ESS2_2015 / ESS2 * 100, ESS3 / ESS3_2015 * 100)
ESS1 and ESS2Lower is better, so the index uses the inverse ratio.
ESS3Higher is better, so the index uses the direct ratio.
Important distinction: the raw paper average is retained as ESS4_raw_formula. The dashboard ESS4 value is the 2015 = 100 directional security index, so it can be much higher than the raw average.
Renewable Production Rates
T_REN_RATE = sum_i(T_REN_PROD_i) / sum_i(TEC_i)
T_REN_RATE_2 = sum_i(T_REN_PROD_i) / sum_i(T_REN_C_i)
Renewable production relative to total energy demand and renewable consumption.
Conventional Dependency Benchmarks
OilDependency_conv = sum_i(TOI_i) / sum_i(TOC_i)
GasDependency_conv = sum_i(TGI_i) / sum_i(TGC_i)
Direct import-to-consumption ratios used only as a benchmark against ESS channels.
Comext Partner Shares
share_pct = 100 * partner_value / total_product_value
HHI = sum_j((share_pct_j / 100)^2) * 10000
Raw Comext product-partner evidence for import value, concentration, and supplier exposure.
Forecast Validation
MAPE = mean(abs(actual - forecast) / abs(actual))
direction_accuracy = mean(sign(delta_actual) = sign(delta_forecast))
Rolling-origin backtests evaluate whether forecast paths reproduce direction and scale before scenario overlays.
Read the public indicator guide and methodology and provenance page for definitions, source layers and interpretation guardrails.
Publication Readiness Issue Register
The latest reviewed rebuild is ready: Eurostat inputs refreshed, official API partner evidence rebuilt from live responses, raw Comext replication populated, and all generated readiness checks passing. External-news signals remain research-screening context rather than a live monitoring service.
Current Status
Ready. No blocking failures and no active publication warnings in the latest generated checks.
Resolved Limitations
The previous no-refresh and official API cache-fallback warnings were closed by the full live refresh.
Evidence Files
Formula, refresh, partner-source and forecast checks are regenerated with every publication build.
Detailed Register
Review the public methodology for source roles, limitations, validation and disclosure language.
EU Energy-Security Research Topics
Crawlable research guides connect the interactive application to permanent explanations, country comparisons and evidence.
Energy Import Exposure
Compare oil and gas ESS exposure signals with conventional dependency benchmarks.
Import Partners
Understand the raw Comext, official API and workbook evidence layers used for supplier analysis.
EU Member States
Review country-level ESS1, ESS2, ESS3 and renewable indicators against the EU27 reference.
Policy Scenarios
Read transparent baseline, IMEC and Piano Mattei scenario assumptions without treating them as predictions.
Source Hierarchy
The project separates exact target formulas, explanatory feature experiments, and partner-source replication layers.
Eurostat
Exact ESS formula backbone, industrial production, macro interaction, and validation targets.
Raw Comext
Preferred product-partner replication layer when the selected product scope matches the claim.
Official API
Reproducible annual quantity route for EU main energy partners and comparison views.
External Context
World Bank, OECD, Wikipedia, and screened news features enter as lagged explanatory signals only.
Contact
For research, licensing, deployment, or GDPR privacy requests, contact the project controller directly.