Baseline
Continues the empirically selected historical model for each metric before policy-scenario adjustments.
The scenarios are structured sensitivity exercises, not predictions. Each path starts from a metric-specific baseline selected through rolling historical backtests, then applies documented scenario adjustments and eligible shock overlays.
IMEC
Tests an optimistic corridor-informed profile for trade exposure, resilience, renewable and digital channels.
Read the IMEC scenarioPiano Mattei
Tests an Italian-led Mediterranean partnership profile with modeled EU spillovers and stronger gas-security channels.
Read the Mattei scenarioHow the paths are built
- Construct historical ESS and supporting metrics from the documented project inputs.
- Backtest transparent candidate models using rolling historical cutoffs.
- Select the lowest-error baseline model separately for each metric.
- Translate historical change distributions and corridor mechanisms into scenario adjustments.
- Apply only source-noted, forecast-relevant shocks and retain uncertainty ranges.
Critical guardrail: corridor and policy sources support mechanisms and context. The numerical effect sizes remain author-calibrated assumptions rather than source-estimated treatment effects.
Appropriate uses
Policy comparison
Compare how a consistent set of assumptions changes multiple energy-security channels.
Sensitivity analysis
Identify which parameters and metrics explain the difference between scenario paths.
Research discussion
Make assumptions inspectable before expert review, recalibration or a client-specific scenario.