Trade exposure
Diversification and corridor-connectivity assumptions are applied to scenario-sensitive import channels.
The India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor is represented as a scenario mechanism, not as a completed energy system or a measured causal intervention. The project tests how optimistic corridor assumptions could alter selected security indicators relative to the baseline.
Modeled channels
Resilience
Domestic-production and renewable channels receive historically calibrated optimistic adjustments.
Digital and GDP context
Connectivity spillovers enter supporting scenario views rather than replacing the exact ESS formulas.
What the scenario can show
The scenario can compare direction, timing, uncertainty and metric decomposition against the baseline. It cannot establish that IMEC will deliver the displayed effect sizes, because implementation, financing, route design, infrastructure and geopolitical conditions remain outside the fitted historical evidence.
Use this result as: a transparent research sensitivity case for review and recalibration—not a project appraisal, investment forecast or official EU projection.
Related evidence
Review the supplier evidence, ESS definitions and full modeling guardrails before citing a scenario result.