Gas security
The scenario gives comparatively stronger historical-improvement selectors to gas exposure and resilience channels.
The Piano Mattei path is modeled as an Italian-led Mediterranean partnership case with possible EU spillovers. It is not an official forecast of the plan, nor does it assume that announced cooperation automatically becomes delivered energy infrastructure.
Modeled channels
Mediterranean partnerships
Diversification mechanisms are used as context for supplier and connectivity sensitivity.
EU spillovers
Italian-led effects are translated into author-calibrated EU scenario adjustments rather than observed EU policy effects.
What remains uncertain
Project selection, financing, local benefits, infrastructure lead times, contract terms, geopolitical risk and the balance between fossil and renewable investment can all change the security outcome. The model does not resolve those questions automatically.
Use this result as: a structured comparison of assumptions and transmission channels—not a causal estimate, procurement recommendation or promise of policy success.
Continue the analysis
Compare the case with the IMEC scenario, then inspect the import-exposure definitions and model validation.